GTHX - Bull Thesis
BULL THESIS
Commercial-stage cancer biopharma company focused on the development and commercialization of COSELA™ (trilaciclib)*
Pipeline in a compound
Approved for 1st indication (SCLC) Feb ‘21
Upside in current approved indication (SCLC) and especially with other possible future indications
Lots of key readouts coming in next 2-14 months
Lower risk asset/readout because success for most indications depends on protection of patients/blood cells from effects of chemo
Same as approved SCLC
Trilaciclib recently approved (‘22) in China for SCLC from partner
Potential for $475 million in milestone payments plus royalties
G1 has retained all other global rights to COSELA
COSELA has very good insurance reimbursement because it saves the healthcare system money
Good cash position into 2024
Attractive Enterprise Value of ~$450M (10/31/22) for commercial company with promising newer commercial agent
Recently deployed GTHX’s own sales team for better access and focus
1st 2 quarters with GTHX sales force was relatively successful compared to prior quarters
Cosela rev of $8.3M and $9M (last 2 quarters) 60% better vol than quarter ending March 2022
COSELA™ Trilaciclib (G1T28) (CDK4/6 inhibitor) SCLC (Small Cell Lung Cancer)
Approved 2/2/21
~$21 -> ~$30 increase in stock price after approval.
Currently ~20K Eligible ES-SCLC Patients
Added to NCCN Guidelines in 2021.
GTHX's own COSELA-focused sales team fully deployed February 2022.
Only product offering proactive multilineage myeloprotection to decrease the incidence of chemotherapy-induced myelosuppression in ES-SCLC.
Trilaciclib partnered and now approved in China (by partner Simcere), royalties and milestones expected
Approved for SCLC
Trials ongoing in CRC, TNBC, Bladder
CRC (Colorectal Cancer
Reading out in early Q1 2023
Myeloprotection primary endpoint for FOLFOXIRI chemo hits on strength of Cosela
TNBC - PRESERVE 2, pivotal phase 3 tria
Topline data expected H2 2023
Improvement in Overall survival in 2 of 3 cohorts. (source)
Compared to GC alone (Group 1),
OS was improved in both trilaciclib arms (Groups 2 and 3) (Group 2: HR=0.31, p=0.0016; Group 3: HR=0.40, p=0.0004). Median OS was 12.6 months in Group 1, not reached for Group 2, and 17.8 months in Group 3. The median OS for Groups 2 and 3 combined was 19.8 months (HR=0.37, p<0.0001). The median OS for control GC alone (Group 1, 12.6 months)
Strong evidence for PRESERVE 2 OS readout in 2023
MV 11/21/22 (Initial bull post JM/MV 3/10/22)
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