BCRX - Bull Thesis
(Updated 10/31/2022)
BULL THESIS SUMMARY
BCRX overall corporate and summary
Focusing on difficult to develop oral therapies for life threatening and rare diseases, with product drug development group
Attractive ~$2.5B valuation for company with approval $250M rev drug that could be $1B at peak, 2 valuable compounds in clinic, and productive oral drug discovery engine
Attractive M&A candidate, esp. for big pharma in HAE who could lock up some other further out next-gen players too
Unlikely to dilute investors with public offerings because can obtain additional credit if necessary, with Orladeyo revenue as collateral
Management has seen failures and recognizes this possibility for its candidates, but proactively works on backup candidates to stay nimble in drug development
MV 9/30/2022
(See below for full updated bull analysis)
BULL THESIS
BCRX overall corporate and summary
Heavy competition for current and future BCRX drugs will continue to hold down valuation
ORLADEYO
Orladeyo market opportunity is less than Company’s ~$1B projection
GI issues lead to discontinuations or patients sticking with other drugs
Lots of competitors for HAE (*1)
including approved drugs from Takeda and Behring
and clinical stage including several other oral drugs against the same target as OLRLADEYO (PKa) or drugs that may require administration only semi-annually, or curative gene therapies
As data is presented for competitive therapies, especially oral with less GI issues, or semi-annual or curative gene therapies, BCRX stock will be hit
MV 9/30/2022
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