INO vaccine looks promising against variants
What drove INO stock rollercoaster today?
INO reported encouraging news today, publishing results showing that their COVID-19 vaccine showed through in vitro tests on patient blood samples, that it appears to have similar efficacy against COVID variants as the current COVID vaccines, and may have better immunogenicity against the Brazilian variant. The stock was up over 15% early today, but as of this mid-day report, has pulled back to up around 3%, while biopharma indices are up around 1%. What drove INO back down? Maybe the realization by investors that INO is far behind in launch timing, the RNA vaccine makers, and even the viral DNA COVID vaccine of Pfiizer and the protein-based COVID vaccine of Novavax.
What's the significance of today's announcement?
INO's vaccine candidate showed better responses against the Brazilian variant than other vaccines tested to date on that variant. Their study showed T cell responses were maintained against all variants tested (UK, South African and Brazilian variants), and that neutralizing antibody levels, although reduced against the South African and UK variant, similar to other vaccines tested thus far, generated robust neutralizing levels against the Brazilian variant that were similar to those seen against the original Wuhan strain. Maybe Brazil would be a particularly valuable country to vaccinate using INO's vaccine? It is strong against the Brazilian variant and it has good stability at warmer temperatures (see below).
What's different about the INO COVID-19 vaccine technology?
The INO COVID-19 vaccine is a different type of nucleic acid vaccine than those of Pfizer, Moderna, or Johnson & Johnson. It is what is called a DNA plasmid (Pfizer and Moderna are RNA and J&J is a viral vector DNA vaccine), that encodes the entire spike protein and that is electroporated into a patient, not injected. This potentially has advantages of room temperature storage and less potential vector reactivity with a patient's immune system than a viral vector. The disadvantage is that it requires a special electroporating device and we assume more health professional training, rather than injection with a syringe, for administration.
What's next for INO's COVID-19 vaccine program?
By our estimate, there should be a top-line data readout from their phase 2 placebo-controlled trial later this quarter. INO apparently received agreement with the FDA that the Phase 2 trial will again look at immunogenicity (in vitro tests after patients are vaccinated), rather than actual efficacy protecting patients from COVID-19.
What's the biggest concerns re: INO's COVID-19 vaccine program, and possibly why did the stock pull back after the big open?
1) INO is running behind other COVID-19 vaccine programs in timing. It is just this quarter reporting Phase 2 safety and immunological data, and INITIATING phase 3 this quarter. Can the INO DNA vaccines, be developed quickly enough to compete with RNA vaccines?
Are the RNA vaccines showing through development speed and clinical safety and efficacy that they render other vaccine technologies obsolete? It seems that INO's pretty simple DNA plasmid vaccine should be capable of about the same development speed as RNA vaccines. As far as clinical safety and efficacy, the jury is still out in our view.
2) We don't yet have actual data on patient protection against COVID-19 with INO's COVID vaccine candidate. However, for at least the major COVID-19 vaccines to date, patient anti-SARS-COV-2 in vitro immunological data has translated into protection against COVID-19 clinical disease in patients.
3) The electroporation device and mechanism adds some risk in terms of safety and especially device approval by regulatory agency and widespread commercial adoption.
What is INO's COVID-19 vaccine readout Big-Mover catalyst score?
INO's current Big-Mover score is medium-low, surprisingly. That means that with our combined thoughts on the readout and the current market options volatility data, it appears unlikely that the stock is going to move more than 20% up or down in the next 30 days, although there could be some day-to-day variation. On the one hand, the Phase 2 top-line results for a COVID-19 vaccine would seem like a potential Big-Mover event. We would think that the stock would be highly volatile currently. However, options volatility data currently is quite low. Maybe the options volatility data will spike later in the quarter as the Phase 2 report-out comes nearer. Or maybe the market is not that excited by more immunological data when other vaccines are so much further along.
Is INO a one-trick pony - COVID-19 vaccine only?
INO has a lot more than just its COVID-19 vaccine. See our updated INO company pipeline page and associated IQ cards for the latest info. Here's the top of the pipeline page, just to give you an idea:
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