Biotech General Discussion

Alzheimer's has been one of the disease that have been most challenging to find effective therapeutics (See Review), to which any central nervous system (CNS) biopharma investor will attest. Yesterday, ANVS was up more than 100% on their report of surprisingly good efficacy data in a Phase 2 study of their drug candidate, ANVS401, in Alzheimer's disease. In the first 14 patients analyzed, after 25 days of treatment, patients experienced a statistically significant 4.4 point improvement in the ADAS-Cog11 score, a commonly used cognitive score of Alzeimer's disease.

We identified other companies that have Alzheimer's drug candidates in our bpiq.com database to determine whether the positive news on ANVS carried through to the companies sponsoring these other Alzheimer's candidates (See Table 1). Overall, the news on ANVS appeared to have a positive affect on the Alzheimer's Smid-CAP group as the median move for companies developing Alzheimer's drugs on 5/21/21 was 2.99% vs. a median of 0% for the ~550 companies in our BPIQ.com database. Shares of LGVN, INMB and ALEC all traded over 5% higher, possibly as a result of the ANVS report-out.

Table 1. 5/21/21 stock move for BPIQ companies developing Alzheimer's drugs

Next, we analyzed whether any of the other Alzheimer's companies in our BPIQ database, shared a similar mechanism of action (Table 2). ANVS401 has been shown in human and animal studies to lower tau/phospho-tau, α-synuclein, and Alzheimer's Precursor Protein (APP), which is proteolyzed into amyloid β peptides (Aβ), (Source). Apparently, these are the neurotoxic proteins that impair axonal transport and lead to inflammation and cell death (Source). Table 2 provides information about the targets/mechanisms of the Alzheimer's drug candidates in our BPIQ database. ANVS401 appears unique in its down regulation of the combination of APP/Aβ), tau/phospho-tau, and α-synuclein. Thus, the results of ANVS yesterday, might not provide a positive insight into any of the other Alzheimer's Smid-CAP companies.

The closest mechanism appears to be those targeted by the ACIU candidates, Semorinemab, which inhibits tau, and ACI-24, which is a vaccine directed against aggregated Amyloid Aβ protein. It's interesting that ACIU stock price was actually down on 5/22/21. Thus, the market is not seeing a tight correlation between ADMS's candidate and those of ACIU. This reaction might be because ACIU's partner, Genentech, reported negative results for Semorinemab in mild Alzheimer's. And with respect to ACI-24, the market may feel that the possible Alzheimer's treatment activity of ANVS401 does not relate solely to its Amyloid β down regulation since Amyloid β protein has been one of the most highly targeted proteins in the graveyard of Alzheimer's drug candidates (See Review). Maybe a key to ANVS401's success is the combination of proteins it down-regulates, since a combination approach is believed most likely to be most effective (See Review). Maybe that's why the market gave LGVN stock a double-digit boost on the ANVS news, although its mechanism does not appear on a first analysis to be closely linked to that of ANVS, it is a combination approach.

Table 2 Target/Mechanism for Smid-CAP Companies Alzheimer's drugs

Earlier this year, the market catapulted SAVA stock price over 400% on its report out of a 1.6 point improvement in ADAS-Cog11 over six months (source). SAVA's simufilam functions by restoring Filamin A structure in the brain, thus not apparently closely related to ANVS401's mechanism. SAVA's market cap has settled in at around $2.0 billion with an enterprise value of around $2.3 billion. After yesterdays positive readout, ANVS's market cap and enterprise value sit at around $400M. Both companies are pretty pure-play CNS companies (See BPIQ Pipeline images FIG. 1A and FIG. 1B below). Thus, ANVS still seems pretty inexpensive relative to SAVA. The market still sees a lot of risk in both of these companies of course, as their clinical programs are still early, and the value of an FDA-approved Alzheimer's treatment that could reduce some of the symptoms of this debilitating disease would likely be greater than $10 billion. Furthermore, the market likely sees more risk in ANVS currently, because its data is only for less than 1 month of treatment.

FIG. 1A. ANVS pipeline

FIG. 1B. SAVA pipeline

So now that Alzheimer's looks like an indication that is possibly treatable, what are other upcoming Alzeimer's readouts between now and the end of July in our BPIQ $100M - $5B market cap catalyst calendar? Table 3 provides information about the next clinical readout for companies in our BPIQ database. We find that the next few months should be rich in data for these Alzheimer's candidates: Simufilam (Phase 2 SAVA), Semorinemab (Phase 2 ACIU), ACI-24 (Phase 2 ACIU), and possibly CY6464 (Phase 2 CYCN), all should have readouts in the next few months, along with updated data for ANVS401 (Phase 2 ANVS). You can always search our catalyst calendar for Alzheimer's disease drug candidates to get the latest information. Thus, this should be an exciting time for Alzheimer's research. We hope that these candidates continue to show promise and result not only in excellent returns for investors, but especially, excellent improvements for Alzheimer's patients.

Table 3. Additional information on Alzheimer's drugs in our BPIQ database.

#ACUI #ACI24 #Semorinemab

#ADMS #Namzaric

#ALEC #AL101 #Progranulin #SIGLEC3 #AL002 #TREM2

#ANVS #ANVS401

#ATHA #ATH1017

#AVXL #ANAVEX273

#AXSM #AXS05

#BHVN #Troriluzole

#CRTX #COR588

#CYCN #CY6463

#INMB #xpro1595

#LGVN #LomeculB

#SAGE #SAGE718

#SAVA #Simufilam

#TNXP #TNX102

#VTVT #TTP488 #Azeliragon