BCRX Updated Bull Case (Sept 2022)
Bull Case
BCRX is a commercial stage company that focuses on difficult to develop oral therapies for rare disease with a productive drug development team. From a bullish perspective, they own the first approved oral HAE therapy, ORLADEYO, which will hit over $250M in sales this year, in only its 2nd full year since approval. The company projects that it will hit $1B in peak ORLADEYO sales, which make the current ~$2.5B enterprise value appear low.
For the bull case, what makes BCRX's valuation appear particular low is that in addition to its approved potentially blockbuster drug, the company has 2 compounds in the clinic currently, and has pre-clinical candidates too. BCX9930, an oral Factor D inhibitor has shown promising efficacy in early clinical trials. And although kidney safety issues arose, which led to an FDA clinical hold, from a bull's perspective, those appear to be easily avoided by using a lower, but effective dose (400 mg), and assuring that the drug is taken with water.
Finally, from a bullish perspective, the company has a productive drug development team that adds significant value. There is another internally developed drug candidate, BCX9250, an ALK-2 inhibitor for treating the rare disease FOP, that will enter phase 2 likely in 2023 for another rare disease. Furthermore, the company appears poised to introduce at least 1 more home-grown candidate into the clinic by the end of 2023. Thus, for BCRX bulls, there is a case to be made.
Become an Amp subscriber today, and learn of the Bear case on BCRX as well, and most importantly, read Amp's view of BCRX and whether it is a buyer or a seller currently.
*1 Current and Prospective Targets of Pharmacologic Treatment of Hereditary Angioedema Types 1 and 2
*2 This write-up is accompanied by an update to our outlined version of our BCRX Bull-Bear theses.
MV 9/30/22 This is not investment or legal advice.