ESPR Bull or Bear?
ESPR is an interesting story. With an approved LDL-C lowering drug (bempadoic acid) approved as a stand-alone and combo pill (see IQ Card), the questions now revolve around their poor commercial performance since launch last year, and the associated spend. The company execs say its all about Covid. That might be some of it, but is it really more about not having their long-term cardio vascular outcomes ("CVOT") data until 2nd half 2022?
It was good to see ESPR tighten their spend for Q4 2020 and for 2021 along with some reorganization, at least acknowledging that things needed to change. One question that remains in my mind, is whether their spend is still too high. Without CVOT data, launching into this competitive marketplace in 2020 should they have managed to this $320-340M spend that they announced for 2021, rather than their $400-420M that they initial guided for 2020. And now, without CVOT data for well over 1 year, and still in the middle of the pandemic, should they cut their spend/organization even further?
The 3rd and 4th quarters of 2021 and 2022 should clarify how much of the poor commercial performance was due to Covid. However, I don't think it is debatable, that bempadoic acid's market potential will be much better later next year with CVOT data in hand, assuming it is positive. However, ESPR will still need to some months after that data, to put together the sNDA filing and get an expanded indication into their label. In the meantime, it may be a tough ride for ESPR investors. I like the company long-term and will likely hold most of our current position, mainly to be long when the CVOT data reads out late next year, which if positive, should be a major upward catalyst for the stock.
#ESPR, $ESPR, #LDL-C, #Bempadoic_acid, #bempadoic