BLU - Bull Thesis
BULL THESIS
BLU overall corporate and executive summary
~$380M in cash (including $150M offering about to close)
Yrs of cash
Should cover thru Ph3 trial (need company confirmation)
Attractive <$1B MC/EV with lead (BLU-5937) entering Ph3 in large addressable market and impressive ph2 data
Single asset company - attractive acquisition target in future
100% ownership of global rights to BLU-5937 + comp patents to 2034
Very good relative stock performance in 1H 2022 w contd. positive data on 5937
BLU-5937 potential best in class P2X3 antag for hi freq chronic cough
Large market (blockbuster potential)
Stock jumps - Sept ‘21 & Dec ‘21 on Ph2 hi freq cough data
Entering Ph3 in ‘22
Differentiated profile of much lower taste AEs with better efficacy than lead compound in class (MRK)
If MRK gets approved and succeeds in early market, could be positive for BLU because same cough measuring device and next-gen (differentiated) compound
FS/MV 7/16/22
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BULL THESIS (detailed)
BLU-5937 (2nd gen P2X3 antagonist)
Chronic cough (Phase 2b trial completed)
Should now have $ to get thru Ph3 trial
Expected multi-$B global market by 2027
Potential blockbuster drug for chronic cough in patients with high cough count
Potential to be best P2X3 antagonist in regards to class selectivity, efficacy, and tolerability (See table)
Initiating Ph3 trial in ‘22
Topline Phase 2b SOOTHE trial data reported in December 2021,
Reached primary efficacy endpoint with statistical significance (34% placebo-adjusted reduction in 24 hour cough frequency)
Patients w/ cough count at or above 25 coughs/hour
Well tolerated w/ low rate of taste related adverse events
Stock rose 33% when positive results reported
50% of patients hit 50% cost reduction
Positive stat sig results in patient outcome measures
Low rate of taste-related adverse events across all dose levels (<6.5%)
Competitors show much higher occurrences of taste loss
Gefapixant - 58% in COUGH-1 and 69% in COUGH-2 Phase 3 trials had taste alteration and/or taste loss
Received CRL in Jan 2022; more info related to measurement of efficacy requested
Phase 2a trial showed limited benefit in low cough count (<30 coughs/hour)
Eliapixant - 13% taste AE in 75mg BID and 24% taste AE in 150mg BID
Recently discontinued (Feb 2022)
Sivopixant - 33% taste AE in safety analysis population
If MRK gets approved and succeeds in early market, could be positive for BLU because same cough measuring device and next-gen (differentiated) compound
Potential antagonist for additional cough and non-cough related indications
Neuropathic pain, overactive bladder, endometriosis pain