UROV's Vibegron Imminent Phase 3 Readout In Overactive Bladder Has a Good Chance of Success


Based on robust Ph2B and Ph3 (Japan) data in prior trials with similar design, it appears highly likely that UROV's Vibegron will meet its primary endpoints in the current phase 3 trial for overactive bladder with data due out this month. If the magnitude of reduction in urgent incontenence and other endpoints is large relative to the control arm and better than the active comparitor arm, the results are likely to have more of an effect on the stock price because they will be seen as more commercially meaningful. However, we find it difficult to predict the magnitude of further stock price increase on positive data because the stock has run up over 100% leading into this data and the market likely sees a high likelihood of success, but it's not hard to double UROV's valuation from the current level given the market potential and late stage of this drug candidate. Thus, in our view it's hard to predict whether the market has already baked most of the upside into the current valuation. See our catalyst card here with lots of organized information to help you analyze this readout for yourself: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IxYQ-_QH1GkQrZTyM1isZXdMn_BfvYaXIl3dyLZyA-M/edit?usp=sharing

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