AMRN; a Q3 Pick and Possible Run-Up


For Q3 2018, one of our picks is AMRN as a run-up play before data read-out. They have an approved drug for cardiovascular health and have data coming to substantially broaden the market for that drug. This trial has taken over 5 years to complete due to the nature of the readout - reduction in major cardiovascular events (MACE). Although we feel that there is a lot of uncertainty of whether data will read out positive for a reduction in MAC, the value of this stock may run up in Q3 before results are presented and there seems to be low likelihood for downside in the months leading up to data report-out. The readout is due before the end of Q3 2018 and is NOT likely to occur in July because since March, last patient site visits needed to occur for the large number of patients in the trial, and a very large amount of data needs to be analyzed after those visits. With plenty of cash in the bank to get thru the end of Q3 readout and a $1B market cap that is arguably supported in large part by the 2017 $180M product sales revenue, it appears to us that at least until the end of July, there is relatively low risk in an investment in AMRN as a potential run-up in the 1st half of Q3.

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