Today, the 3-judge panel was named and oral arguments were heard in the AMRN v. Hikma ANDA (generic drug) litigation. At least from the stock market's perspective (down 30%), it was another tough day for AMRN in this patent litigation. The markets reaction was likely based on the biases of the 3-judge panel that was named, and the focus of the judges' questioning at the oral arguments, on AMRN's counsel.
AMRN is unusual for biopharma investors, because complex patent issues affect it's stock price immensely. Thus, as an AMRN investor, your usual diligence is not enough. We hope that you've been keeping informed from knowledgeable patent attorney(s) about AMRN's complex patent situation. Going into the oral arguments, as we informed our paid subscribers, we gave Natera a 25-33% chance of success in this appeal. We told our subscribers months ago that the specific justices named to the panel would be key, there was little chance for a settlement at this stage, and we thought it was highly unlikely that there would be a generic launch before oral arguments, even after Hikma's generic Vascsepa was approved.
What are AMRN's chances of success in this appeal after the oral arguments and with this 3-judge panel's history on similar cases? What is AMRN likely to do next in this litigation if the 3 judge panel rules against AMRN? What are AMRN's options, considering its overall patent porfolio?
Those are key questions that we've been considering and researching. If you want to learn more about my views on this, consider subscribing to our AMRN Patent Investor service (https://www.ampbioresearch.com/plans-pricing) or if you want to inquire about a 1 on 1 session with me, send an email to email@example.com and our team will provide more information.
Emanuel "Manny" Vacchiano, JD, PhD
Experienced U.S. patent attorney and biopharma investor